In the match between Matteo Arnaldi and Artur Fils, it is more likely that the Italian will win due to his stability and versatility in the game. Arnaldi has shown promising results, including taking a set from Alcaraz. Meanwhile, Fils is going through a period of inconsistency, relying mainly on his strong serve. Moreover, their previous encounters have ended in favor of Arnaldi. Therefore, it is more likely that Matteo Arnaldi will emerge victorious in this match.