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Aslan Karatsev, despite his issues, remains a more serious player at the ATP level. He has experience competing against strong opponents and is capable of displaying a high level of play. Last year, he had successful performances in the Asian series, which gives him the motivation to return to the top 100. Bellucci's opponent is not in his best form, recently losing to less experienced players. Considering the fast Chinese hard court, Karatsev has a good chance of winning. Betting on Aslan at high odds seems reasonable.
Based on current form and results, it is more likely that Lorenzo Bellucci will win against Aslan Karatsev. Bellucci has been performing well on hard courts, showing consistent play and demonstrating a high level of serving, speed, and technique. Meanwhile, Karatsev has been struggling to return to form after injury and has not been playing his best tennis. Considering this and Bellucci's confidence in his abilities, the probability of his victory is higher, especially in the absence of an overperformance from Karatsev.
