Carlos Alcaraz enters the match against Tommy Paul as the favorite, but the American is capable of putting up a fight. The Spaniard holds the advantage in head-to-head matchups (4-2) and in status. However, Tommy is ranked highly in the world rankings (12th place), indicating his level of play. Both players have had some struggles in their recent matches: Alcaraz has lost sets to less experienced opponents, while Paul has been able to grind out victories, showing his endurance. A tough battle is expected, where Tommy is likely to take a set (-1.5 handicap).
The arguments in favor of Alcaraz winning with a handicap (-7.5) are as follows: the Spaniard demonstrates a high level of play on clay, he has the ability to dictate the pace of the match and control the situation, and his physical fitness will be at a high level. Considering the poor form of Paul and his tired state in some matches, it can be assumed that Alcaraz will close the match in three or four sets with a significant lead in games.
